Glad to hear everything is as good as it can be after a car accident. Take as much time as you need before you get back to this silly wrestling stuff.
The G1 means nothing when these things happen. Get sorted and update when you’re better
Thank you ,everyone, for your supportive comments. Everything is fine now and my nephew is safe at home with his parents with little more than a scratch.
The contest results are updated for Day 13 above and Day 14 will be updated shortly after the show tomorrow morning.
There were some very interesting shake-ups in the standings today (Day 13 in Osaka). EVIL and Fale were heavy underdogs in terms of listener predictions with only 27% predicting EVIL over Ospreay and 33% picking Fale over Kenta.
In the overall contest standings, Omri went 4-for-5 to be the sole person in first place at 47 points, Mark Butler held strong going 3-for-5 and is alone in 2nd place at 46 points. There’s a log-jam at 45 points. Oft-mentioned points leader Andy PNZ had a disastrous Day 13 scoring only one point which has him at 44 points. It will be interesting to see if he claws back on top which he has done before but it will take some wizardry.
In the POST Wrestling C-Block, MIke Murray went 3 for 5 to remain alone in 1st place at 43 points and is now 3 points ahead of Davie Portman and Jamesie who are both at 45. Randobot is all but a foot-note at this point. Day 13 was Randobot’s 7th day in a row scoring 2 points or less.
In terms of the actual G1, today had Kenta and Tanahashi elminated as they both lost and can finish with no more than 12 points which would tie Okada even if Okada lost his last 2 matches and Okada has the head-to-head tie-breakers against both of them.
As John pointed out on today’s show, if EVIL wins his last two matches, Okada loses his last two matches (which includes a loss to EVIL), and Ibushi loses his match to ZSJ then EVIL, Okada, and Ibushi will all finish with 12 points but EVIL will have head-to-head tie-breakers vs. both Okada and Ibushi.
Ibushi made up signficant ground but also needs some things to go his way. If Okada beats EVIL on Day 15, Ibushi must beat both Okada and ZSJ to win A-Block (both Okada and Ibushi would finish at 14 with Ibushi having the head-to-head tie-breaker). Alternately, If EVIL beats Okada on Day 15 and beats Archer on Day 17, Ibushi has to beat Okada and not lose to ZSJ to win A-Block. This scenario would have Ibushi finish with at least 13 to Okada and EVIL’s 12.
I actually had both EVIL and Fale winning, but it was really more to make my narrative of the tournament in whole work out. I basically needed Ospreay to lose here so he didn’t have TOO MANY points. And I needed Kota to lose somewhere so he and Okada would be both in it at the end. So I got the two upsets right, but for all the wrong reasons.
Just catching up on this thread, Chris I am sorry to hear about the accident but glad to hear everyone is doing ok. grateful for all you do making this contest go smoothly plus all the insights.
Thank you! I appreciate the concern and kind words.
Glad to hear you’re doing okay Chris.
Wow, I’m tied with Davie now. I won’t win this tournament, but I’m happy with my performance. I’m a regular Tomohiro Ishii.
According to NJPW’s website. the match order for the B-Block card at Budokan is:
- Juice Robinson vs. Jon Moxley
- Tomohiro Ishii vs. Taichi
- Toru Yano vs. Jeff Cobb
- Hirooki Goto vs. Shingo Takagi
- Tetsuya Naito vs. Jay White
Matches 2 and 3 have no implications on who wins B-Block. Setting aside draws and double-count-outs, the possible scenarios going into Match #5 are:
1 - Moxley beats Juice and Goto beats Shingo
- Moxley and Goto would each have 12 with Goto having the tie breaker vs. Moxley
- In this scenario, White cannot win B-Block as Goto has the tie-breaker vs. White
- If Naito wins this creates a scenario where Goto, Moxley, and Naito would all have 12 points. Goto would have the tie-breaker vs. Moxley but not Naito, Moxley would have the tie-breaker vs. Naito but not Goto, and Naito would have the tie-breaker vs. Goto but not Moxley
- This scenario seems the least likely as there is no finality to the outcome of Naito vs. White
2 - Moxley beats Juice and Goto loses to Shingo
- Goto is eliminated; Moxley finishes with 12 and has the tie-breaker vs. Naito but not White
- If Naito beats White then Moxley wins B-Block; Naito and Moxley would both be at 12 and Moxley has the tie-breaker
- If White Beats Naito then White wins B-Block; Moxley and White would each have 12 but White has the tie-breaker vs. Moxley
- This scenario seems somewhat unlikely as Naito gives Moxley the B-Block win if he beats White
3 - Juice beats Moxley and Goto beats Shingo
- Moxley is eliminated
- If White beats Naito then Goto wins B-Block; White and Goto would both be at 12 and Goto has the tie-breaker
- If Naito beats White then Naito wins B-Block; Naito and Goto would each have 12 but Naito has the tie-breaker vs. Goto
- This scenario seems somewhat unlikely as White gives Goto the B-Block win if he beats Naito
4 - Juice beats Moxley and Shingo beats Goto
- Moxley and Goto are eliminated
- Whoever wins Naito vs. White will be the B-Block winner
- This seems like the most likely scenario as it’s the only one where both Naito and White go into their match being able to win B-Block
I thought i would give breaking down this B block final scenario whirl before the review comes, but what am I thinking, Chris is on the scene!
I’ll give my take though which has the same bottom line of 4 possible winners but is much less detailed, maybe a ‘for dummies’ version…
White wins with 12 points by beating Naito IF Moxley loses to Juice, and Goto loses to Takagi. That’s a lot of if’s but not implausible.
Naito wins with 12 points by beating White IF Moxley loses to Juice.
Moxley wins with 12 points by beating Juice IF Goto loses to Takagi.
Goto wins with 12 by beating Takagi IF White wins.
So essentially, as Chris outlined, based on the match order, Juice is beating Moxley. Why have a main event that doesn’t even matter? And we can also reason similarly that Goto is losing to Shingo because again, the main event would not matter. Rather, it would matter but why would White fight for the ability of Goto to go to the finals?
This is where I feel having the point totals being so close together gets convoluted and eliminates some drama instead of building it. Shingo beating Goto would still be something of an upset and a nice surprise to get hit with if not pretty damn near telegraphed because of what it would entail.
While I wouldn’t want it only one way or the other, I lean towards preferring the situation in A block where the end result is largely contested between 2 wrestlers, Ibushi and Okada…let the other matches on the card be entertaining because they are good matches.
Apologies if it’s somewhere obvious but how many points do you get for guessing the overall winner? Trying to work out if I still have a shot at a decent place in P Block if Okada wins outright
Predictions for block and overall winners are only being used as toe breakers. You only score points for correcrly predicting block match results.
Ah my bad, wishful thinking, cheers for all your work!
You’re welcome! The amount of work I’m doing is relatively minor. All I really have to do is watch amazing wrestling matches and generate some PDFs. @johnpollock and @wai0937 are the real work-horses!
Since I’ve done horrible with my picks I am now cheering for Wings! I’ve got a feeling this man will go on a run and jet to the top of the standings.
Good morning, everyone. I hope you’re all enjoying the Block final matches and everything to do with SummerSlam weekend. The contest results are all in the books and there is an unequivocal winner. Final results will be read out on the recap show for tomorrow’s G1 Climax show.
I will post a final PDF report tomorrow (Monday) late afternoon that will have some extra info and, for people that participated last year, I’ll have a report that shows if you did better or worse than last year.
Thanks to everyone who participated. I really have fun putting together the reports and diving into the numbers and scenarios. Have a great Sunday and, of course, a CRUEL SUMMER!!!
Exciting times! I’m hoping going White over Naito has snuck me into an prize position…
Thanks for running this Chris, it’s been a highlight of the G1 for me. Who knew that I’d become Taishi for Royal Leamington Spa? If you’re ever there, I’ll buy you a couple pints…
It’s been more of a cruel winter down here in Australia, but the G1 contest this year has been great fun. Can’t believe how well I managed to do and hearing my name at the end of every other podcast was really surreal.
Pretty sure I won’t be taking out top spot as my last round of picks turned out to be less than stellar. So congrats to the eventual winner!
But the competition was all worth it because I somehow got my fiance to sit through roughly 60/90 matches; to the point where she actually cares who wins the whole thing (she’s rooting for Ibushi of course).
Hi, everyone. The full contest results are uploaded along with the Day 18 update. The recap podcast should be posted any time now so if you want to hear the results read out wait until after you listen to that before you look at the Day 18 PDF. Within that PDF are some extra stats for the end of the contest.
If you signed up this year with the same e-mail address you did last year, there are pages that show if you did better or worse than the year before. I sorted it by the names you all submitted this year.
I think I forgot to shout out @Brad_The_Archivist on the podcast. Brad, it was great to meet you in person at the live recording yesterday. It’s cool to knoe there is someone else with the same obsession around statistics and tracking numbers that I have.
Yes @chris , it was nice to meet and I was honored to take a picture with you. You’re a man after my own heart. We need to collaborate on some sort of statistics podcast.
I didn’t move far from last place over last years contest but I beat Davie’s girlfriend.