I think your timelines makes sense. In Ontario we knew that we had over 3000 cases today. You should see those people rolling into hospital in about 7 to 10 days. So, that would put us right around Christmas or just after.
To be conservative I would say by the end of December we should have a really good idea what is happening with this new variant.
Right now I think the prevailing opinion is we need to prepare for the worst and hope for the best, like your father is saying 
Just want to say thank you for this thread. Really tough to get the facts sometimes. Appreciated.
I knew when I was in high school that there were a lot of idiots, but seeing some of these people during covid and what theyâve been saying, theyâre even bigger idiots than I initially realized. Its sickening.
I got my booster (ie. 3rd dose) last week, and with this wave hitting us the way it is, I am so happy I did. No side effects or reactions. I was a bit tired in the evening, but hard to say if it was booster related or simply lack of sleep related.
Hey @Alex_PatelâŠwhat are your thoughts on the NFL no longer testing asymptomatic double vaccinated players?
Itâs an interesting idea. If you are all double vaccinated and young and asymptomatic does it matter if you have it or potentially spread it to each other? I guess we will see.
It doesnât really work outside of that kind of bubble where you can have all three (no symptoms, two vax and young people only m) so will be interesting to see.
@Alex_Patel why does it feel like the white flag is being flown on containing spread. If weâve been told for 2 years that the more it spreads the more it can mutate, and the more it mutates the more likely it may evade vaccines, then how is the new posturing about only worrying about serious cases, or allowing âvaccinatedâ âasymptomaticâ people to continue as normal. My country seemed completely asleep at the wheel re: tracking mutations and now it seems the new rhetoric will likely lead to an endless cycle of variants and boosters. Does this ever actually go away?
Also, any update on the anti-virals? Something you take when you get it? Why is that taking seemingly forever to get to market in mass production.
Yeah thereâs certainly been a lot of mixed messaging around whatâs been going on.
Letâs backtrack to when the vaccines first came out. The goal of a vaccine when itâs deemed to be successful is if it can reduce the incidence of critical illness by 50%. That really is the goal of any vaccine believe it or not.
When these vaccines came out take more than exceeded that, and even right now with two doses they still meet that threshold easily. However, because initially the vaccines were very effective in preventing any illness there was optimism and I think perhaps some sense of excitement that they would prevent illness altogether.
Mutations are fact of life. All viruses mutate, and they do so in an effort to infect more hosts and essentially stay alive. Itâs a survival mechanism. At this point, 2 vaccine doses does not seem overly effective in preventing any infection.
Certainly with a booster you can bolster your chance of avoiding any infection.
Now when you ask what sort of attitude people have taken they really are two camps about this. One camp believes that we should stick to the initial message of vaccines preventing serious illness and push that narrative as they believe the virus will become endemic sort of like influenza. Youâd be hard-pressed to find anyone who hasnât been exposed influenza at some point.
Thereâs another camp that says we donât know the long term affects of Covid and even if itâs mild now we should do our best to avoid contracting it at all and believe this is possible.
I must admit Iâm kind of in the middle. I donât think with a variant that is probably 4-6 times more infectious ia going to be as easy to avoid any exposure. Thereâs a high probability that this becomes endemic unless we can roll out boosters at a rate that prevents people from getting it.
The other big problem is the masking principles. Because itâs much more infectious and probably airborne, do you need an N 95 or equivalent mask. I venture to say I probably see maybe one percent of people wearing these. Itâs very hard to convince people to do this because you have to find these masks and theyâre tighter fitting and not as comfortable.
When you put all of this together you can see why for the average person who isnât as savvy with their masking and being up-to-date on getting a booster and is perhaps clinging to the notion that they got two shots and theyâll never get Covid it isnât practical that theyâre going to avoid it. And Iâm not trying to throw anyone under the bus here â I think my own parents would think this way and a lot of elderly people unless they had someone in their ear telling them otherwise.
That being said I donât think thereâs any reason right now to throw your hands up and just assume youâre going to get it. If you were boosted and if you take proper precautions you can probably prevent getting it right now. If is this will always be true I donât know.
From a public health standpoint people are handling it differently as well. Most places are trying their best to avoid people getting Covid because as you infect more and more people even if a small percentage gets sick that number becomes insurmountable. There are other areas that are saying because it is unlikely to cause serious illness they donât want to affect their personal liberties.
Itâs very difficult to prevent getting this at all. However it is possible. If you adhere to better masking, get boosted, rapid test before indoor events taking off masks etc. youâre going to reduce your risk. I still think itâs an attainable goal to try and avoid getting it for as long as possible. If by chance it becomes endemic and you get it down the line thatâs fine but thereâs always the possibility that we are seeing omicron rise and fall fast it could be a burnout stage of the virus as well. Time will tell.
In terms of the antivirals yes they are relatively new but their goal is to prevent serious Covid if you take them. However theyâre not well tested in the era of boosters etc. which is why youâre not seeing tons of roll out yet. Itâs similar to monoclonal antibodies which Iâve have really been studied well only in the unvaccinated population.
Hey Alex. What a well written and clearly explained post. Thanks so much for keeping all of us up to date and informed in such a clear and concise manner throughout all of this. All the best!
Some news from UK.
But I have also seen healdines saying that seven patients have died from Omicron in the UK⊠However, that timeline doesnât make sense (unless they were very ill from something else as well?).
An interesting twitter thread here, with good news for vaccinatedâŠ
Fisman is Fisman - Iâll reserve my own opinions about him. It does appear so far that vaccinated people are protected but most of the cases are in the young. The telltale story of omicron will be what occurs when elderly vaccinated people who are not boosted start getting it.
Definitely say that so far we havenât seen huge spikes in hospitalizations which is encouraging
This is very exhausting
Everyone in my small extended family is vaccinated and boosted (except the kids obviously).
Still canât figure out if we all need to wear masks or if testing ahead of time is enough.
Iâm definitely going to try and cover this in more detail tomorrow, on the podcast with the guys, but in general it depends on the individual risk assessment. A rapid test as closest possible to the event that is negative is reassuring but it can miss cases.
As such if you are symptomatic than even if you rapid test negative I wouldnât meet up.
Otherwise if everyone in your circle is low risk even if they get it then itâs certainly an individual risk assessment that might be worth it if the group is small enough to do the rapids and meet up.
If however you have at risk people that are unvax or not boosted or elderly etc. Then you may want to elect to keep masks on.
A huge step forward I assume.
Combined with boosters, weakening severity, and therapeutics⊠Feels like thereâs reason for optimism.
Wanna hear something really cool? One of the treatments that weâre going to soon started administering is an anti-depressant. So people that get Covid that take this antidepressant are less likely to end up in the hospital
It really helps underscore the combined physical and mental health issues of this virus nicely
For anyone doing a rapid test that doesnât like sticking the swab too deep here is a nice video showing how to do a combined throat and nose swab
Well, no more uncertainty for me
My super high risk in-laws let my brother-in-law travel from out of state to stay for the week without testing before leaving.
One has covid and they arenât leaving.
See ya next Xmas dummies.
Me and my gf got our boosters today! Feeling tired but thatâs about it. Merry Christmas Eve everyone!
Unexpectedly found a clinic for boosters taking appointments late last night for today. Got a slot for my wife and I.
Boosted up. First two Pfizer, third dose Moderna.
Absolutely no issues being a Quebec resident, getting one in Ontario. Thankfully. As who knows when 30+ will start in Quebec.
A somewhat optimistic Twitter threadâŠ
And a good thread covering the basics of things right nowâŠ