FEEDBACK: WWE Raw 8/23/21

What did you think of WWE Raw?

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0 voters

What in the Mortal Kombat hell was Kross wearing?
That got me to tap out

John and Wai, you two are the bravest souls putting up with this nonsense each week.

Wwe is a solid :-1:

I don’t see how you guys watch 3 hrs of raw every week. Poor ricochet. I do enjoy Damien priest. Going to smackdown Friday front row seats thanks to my wife my first wwe event and I know they will give a better show Friday. Shouts out to Bianca bel air still not over how they did her

The theme of Raw this week for me was: Sure, why not, they might as well…

Rhea and Nikki as a tag team? Not like either of them will feature in the title picture for a while.

Break up Miz and Morrison? Probably going to be good for some laughs and a couple of enjoyable gimmick matches before they run it into the ground.

Raise Damian Priest and Sheamus as possible opponents for Bobby Lashley? No reason not to try.

Alexa challenging Charlotte? That’s legitimately a feud we’ve not had before.

The problem is that I don’t have any confidence that any of this stuff will be successfully parlayed into interesting stories that will get me invested.

At this point, I feel like the most compelling story on Raw is the destruction/ humiliation of Karrion Kross. Like they’re deliberately trying to make the guy look as foolish as possible in the hopes that we’ll feel sorry for him or something. It has to be deliberate, right? There’s no way they can be that clueless as to how they’re presenting him?

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Man, that Logan Paul is the most over heel on the show.

What the fuck was Kross wearing?! How much longer till his contract runs out and he can go back to Impact?

I hate to admit it but Riddle is kinda growing on me. A lot of it is due to Ortons acting, this is the perfect role for him.

If anyone (@wai0937) wants to hear investors thoughts just look at a stock chart. I was a an investor for years leading up to the TV Rights deal in 2018. I pitched it @ $27-30 to our Equities guy and my talking points were:
-TV Rights deals negotiations (this was before they were public)
-Brock and Ronda and who else will want to come in and elevate the profile and upside of bigger attractions
-Niche audience in a fragmented ad space

In one of my more proud wrestling moments he would later tell me I was right and he shouldn’t have dismissed it as “just wrestling”.

TODAY I am incredibly bearish (negative sentiment) and critical of the stock today and do not own any because:

  • consumer engagement metrics all down
  • lack of ability to create new meaningful revenue drivers which creates concentrated revenue risk
  • changing media ecosystem and what is fair value for the core tv rights given AEWs current deal (and likely increase) vs WWE current deal and trends (is it more likely AEW gets 2bln/5 years or WWE regresses to a lower price point).
  • on the media landscape: everyone is spending insane $ today but what do those investments look like in year 2&3 (or when WWE is negotiating). How much money in that system will be left and how will success KD current deals impact how properties are valued in the future. If the peacock deal isn’t bringing subs to Peacock does that decrease future value of WWE IP(?). It’s currently speculated Peacock is struggling mightily and far behind other streaming platforms that recently launched.

As an investor: anything short of a rights fee increase is the last straw. They’ve burned investors a lot

  • fired Co Presidents with zero warning or communicated plan
  • misled on MENA deal / still no deal
  • scrapped NXT Global Expansion
  • continued reliance on Saudi Arabia
  • talent liability (regulation risk impacting employment classifications)
  • real competition on the consumer front for merch and consumer product (wwe losing market share?)
  • the stinging memory of 2014 and the stock sell off when the rights fees weren’t as anticipated due to poor guidance from the same Chair of the Board

So basically this is a company that burned allllll good will after the last rights deal. The stock hit $100 and is 50% off the high. In a reopening environment the stock can’t get off the mat and is up only 66% off it’s Covid lows (and almost flat from pre Covid). Not even the deal with peacock could lift the stock.

The entire future of the stock relies on the next TV deal. That’s a singular binary outcome. (OR it’s a buyout candidate and that’s the other reason to get in it.)

No analysts are initiating coverage and the usual suspects aren’t changing their ratings. It’s a pretty boring stock and what we know is pension funds that companies like this heavily rely on have sued and settled with this company, which is a real red flag for future funds considering it.

I think if you invest in this company you want MORE money from Core TV Rights and everything else is meaningless. You care about everything else as it relates to “will they get more money from tv”. The emergence of real competition, eroding fan base and consumer engagement metrics, and public scrutiny are all things that would make me scared they may not get MORE for rights. Staying the same is unacceptable.


Would love to hear your thoughts on Bed Bath and Beyond, MJ.

It’s part of the “Meme Basket” so I wouldn’t trade it like a normal company. Notice how they did very well when the housing market and moving was a really big talking point in the news. When I moved I went to a BB&B and was blown away how they were being cleaned out of inventory and how many people were shopping (I moved in October of 2020). Sometimes your own personal experience (what products do you use and are shocked how popular they got) and investing in things you know (WWE pre-2018 TV deals) are the easiest way to pick companies to watch and invest in longer term if you can make a case for them and agree with the price of the stock.

Investing in stocks is emotional
Analyzing stocks is analytical

Also we can all be investors - so put on your investor hat - do you think WWE is positioned for future success and revenue growth based on your personal experience with it. The answer - when investing - doesn’t have to be abstract. As I’m not shy about, I do not see the case for investing now. It’s a binary outcome based on TV deals in a few years. As a viewer and follower of their product, I don’t see it being more popular in a few years so I think the likelihood of a big increase to be less.

I did this with Monster energy when I discovered their Zero flavors in 2017. I was shocked how many flavors and places carried them. From 2017 to now that stock basically doubled. I literally invested in it because if they have so many offerings that so many stores carry regularly they must be growing and others must like the drinks. Guess the business reflected that. It can often be that dumb and easy because you as a consumer know as much as you likely need to know to decide if the company has a bright upside or concerns that equal risk.

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Since I’m just hijacking a feedback thread to ramble about stocks and the mindset of a “retail bro”:

  • WWE pre Q3’2019 earnings was at $70, 30% off it’s high. It tanked upon that earnings release that was the same day as the Saudi disaster
  • WWE pre-Wilson and Barrios firings was $62 and tanked below $50 this was one of my worst single beatings ever when that news broke and I got crushed that day and vowed to stop investing in WWE long term because Vince left to his own devices would fuck up everything good in his 70s…I do still from time to time play options on earnings but even stopped that once the Peacock deal showed me nobody cared; I don’t plan on being back to the stock until rumblings of next TV negotiations start - it was the manner in which they did this that really sent investors for the exists. I recall bringing this up on a Cafe call in show, this was not normal with no clear plan communicated and investors DO NOT like uncertainty.
  • WWE was at $50 pre-pandemic March of 2020. It is since flat. The Market has done nothing but go up since the March 23rd low; the S&P is up almost 100% since the March 23rd low and WWE is absolutely flat. Buying the $100 of the S&P (SPY) would have made you nearly $100; buying WWE would have made you $0.
  • WWE hit a low of $33ish during the darkest days of the pandemic. A level not seen before since before the '18 TV rights deals got announced.

All those sellers at $70, $62, $50 need to be replaced by new buyers who see enough in the company to think it can climb those walls back to $60, $70, $100. Along the way anyone holding it at a higher price than $50 is capable of selling once they get back to break even. I point that out because it’s had several big drops since September 2019.

*none of this is financial advice just trying to answer something brought up on Rewind-a-Raw and using my own experience and opinion/insight having followed the company stock for years now *

Instructions unclear — YOLO’d into Dogecoin.

I’m more of a can’t stop, won’t stop kinda guy