Originally published at https://www.postwrestling.com/2020/03/04/post-bonus-show-cody-saftic-previews-ufc-248/
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John Pollock is joined by Cody Saftic from the Dog or Pass Podcast and Fight Network to chat about the latest MMA news and this weekend’s UFC 248 card.
The two discuss the recent Tyson Fury fight with Deontay Wilder, Deiveson Figueiredo’s knockout of Joseph Benavidez, the next step for the flyweight division, the UFC’s bantamweight division, Petr Yan to fight Marlon Moraes in June, the decision to give Jose Aldo the title fight against Henry Cejudo, Invicta FC utilizing open-scoring this Friday, the crossroads for Jon Jones following his recent fights, if it makes sense for Jones to go to heavyweight, and a big chat about the Israel Adesanya vs. Yoel Romero and Zhang Weili vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk title fights this Saturday at UFC 248.
Catch our UFC 248 POST Show this Saturday night with John Pollock & Phil Chertok reviewing the card
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Does John ever sleep? The man is a cyborg of wrestling/MMA goodness.
Fantastic podcast, Cody’s Jon Jones rant was hilarious.
As far as this weekends main event goes, I don’t see how Adesanya/Romero is any more of a legitimate fight then Cejudo/Aldo. Romero is 1-3 in his last 4 fights! And he missed weight in his one win! The last time Romero won a fight and made weight, was 2016!
Aldo/Cejudo might just be crazier, but I don’t think it’s apples to oranges. I also think some people are going to be very surprised when Jose Aldo wins that fight rather easily. Stylistically, Cejudo is the perfect matchup for him.
The major difference is that if Adesanya is willing to fight - if not Romero, then who?
With Costa unavailable the only one who could argue when Romero was announced is Jared Cannonier, who himself is now injured.
In Aldo’s case, it’s minimal what he adds versus three contenders in Yan, Sterling and Sandhagen ready to fight.
As a fight, I like Adesanya-Romero and if the options are that fight or Adesanya waiting a few months for Costa, it’s hard to be upset over.
It’s really too bad we don’t get the PPV numbers anymore. Would an Aldo PPV do better then Yan/Aljo/Sandhagen? I think so. But under the new PPV model, I’m not even entirely sure how much that matters. I mean, it has to matter to an extent, or they obviously wouldn’t go with him, but nonetheless:
It would be fascinating to see the numbers that current champions like Adesanya or recently made stars like Jorge Masvidal are doing. It can be hard to gauge who is a star amongst MMA fans, and who is becoming a star on a more mainstream level. This weekends card is a perfect example of a buyrate that would really shine a light to the degree of Adesanya’s starpower (and to an extent, Zhang Weili’s).
I disagree here with John, Aldo adds a history of people willing to pay for him on PPV, the other fighters have not even headlined an event. I’m not justifying the decision but the financial expectations clarify things.
Key difference is that in the new ESPN+ era, UFC is getting a licensing fee upfront for the pay-per-views and relieves them of that pressure, to a degree. The belief was that if they go above a certain threshold of buys, UFC would share in that.
It’s one thing if you’re talking about booking a fight that will do such big business that UFC and ESPN+ go above the threshold, but for a rank-and-file card - such as UFC 250 - UFC is guaranteed the same amount whether it’s Jose Aldo, Petr Yan, or Phil Chertok fighting Henry Cejudo.
If Cejudo-Aldo was a fight that would have done 400,000+ on traditional pay-per-view, I’d still disagree with the matchmaking but would understand the rationale. I would venture to guess the ceiling on this fight under the old PPV model would be 225,000.
The gate, non ESPN+ PPV purchases and sponsorship are also relevant revenue considerations as well.
That’s a fair point. Are you (or John) familiar with UFC PPV Purchases in Brazil? From my limited understanding, I am under the impression that Fightpass in unavailable in Brazil, which leads me to believe that UFC PPV’s would potentially be on a specific channel, or perhaps another paid service (DAZN style)?
I would have to imagine Aldo would be a difference maker in terms of Brazilian PPV buys, at least in comparison to Yan/Sterling/Sandhagen.
I recall a leaked financial report from 2014 or 2016 that showed PPV around 60% of all revenue with something like 15% coming from international with that number growing. So a small but still significant number. Please excuse me if my recollection is wrong on that. I believe this was a doc being circulated to potential investors prior to the sale.